Due to “improving private consumption, particularly in rural India,” the International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its earlier prediction of 6.8% GDP growth for India in 2024–25 to 7%.
“The forecast for growth in India has also been revised upward, to 7 per cent, this year, with the change reflecting carryover from upward revisions to growth in 2023 and improved prospects for private consumption, particularly in rural areas,” the International Monetary Fund stated in its World Economic Outlook report.
The IMF has maintained its 6.5% forecast for India’s economic growth in 2025–2026.
By 2024, growth in China and India will make up nearly half of global growth. Major advanced nations’ growth rates are more in line with one another: the Euro area’s growth accelerates while the US begins to slow down following a robust year, according to Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF.
China’s growth rate is predicted by the IMF World Economic Outlook to be 5% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025.
Among developed nations, the United States’ GDP growth rate is anticipated to reach 2.6% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025.
Japan’s GDP is predicted to expand by 0.7% in 2024 and by 1% in 2025. It is anticipated that the GDP growth rate of the Euro area would reach 0.9% in 2024 and then reach 1.5% in 2025.
According to the April 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) prediction, global growth will be 3.2% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025.
The deceleration of disinflation due to services inflation is impeding the process of normalising monetary policy. With trade tensions on the rise and policy uncertainty growing, upside risks to inflation have consequently increased, potentially leading to higher interest rates for even longer periods of time. According to the IMF assessment, “the policy mix should thus be carefully sequenced to achieve price stability and replenish diminished buffers.”
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